Poland strongly opposes the "economic
expansion" of Russia and inhibits the penetration of Russian business
into the country at the political level, behind the scenes. Mistrust
towards Russia is boosted by Polish journalists publishing polls on the
subject, comments of prominent politicians and questionable verdicts of
the Polish security service.
This raises the question whether Poland is a democratic country with a free market economy. According to a survey conducted for Puls Biznesu
newspaper, 62 percent of Poles believe that the government should block
any attempt of the Russians to take control over Polish companies. Only
19 percent believe that Russian companies may invest in Poland without
restrictions (the remaining 19 percent were undecided).
The survey was conducted after the
bloated media scandal caused by the purchase of the Polish Chemical
Holding Group Azoty Tarnow by the Russian AKRON. In May, the Internal
Security Agency of Poland warned the government about the transaction
that, in their opinion, was a threat to the country's energy security.
The agency stated that Tarnow group generated approximately 10 percent
of the Polish demand for natural gas it was getting from Russia. The
agency concluded that by buying out the largest consumers of Russian gas
in Poland, AKRON was trying to interfere with the planned migration of
the Polish economy to its own shale gas production.
As a result, the Polish government
urgently merged Tarnow with another chemical group, Pulaw, its main and
only competitor. They increased the capital share, artificially reducing
AKRON's share from 66 to 12 percent. The second large transaction, the
purchase of a Polish construction company Polimex-Mostostal by the
Russian group "VIS," was blocked altogether. The Government explained
that Polimex performs contracts in the energy sector seen by Poland as a
strategic.
"In the case of Russia, it is very
difficult to separate business from politics," Igor Chalupec, former
head of the largest Polish oil company PKN Orlen told Reuters.
"If we add an emotional burden created by the complex history of the
Polish-Russian relations, we get an explosive mixture where even the
simplest thing grows to the size of a national issue," Shalupek said. He
believes that even the government of Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who
five years ago was determined to establish working relationships with
Russia, was not able to resolve the issue.
This expert has a more positive
attitude, while others are afraid not only of the Russian capital, but
also tanks. "I once dealt with the boyars, now I am dealing with the
oligarchs. I am worried about Soviet tanks in Poland, not the capital,"
newspaper Rzeczpospolita quoted Robert Gviazdovski, an
economist at the Center for the Adam Smith in Warsaw who is seemingly
removed from the Polish politics. Politicians, however, are not far
behind. "We have been trying to normalize the situation in Poland for 20
years, increase transparency and reduce corruption. I do not want these
(Russian) oligarchs to destroy it all over again," said Peter Naimsky, a
former deputy economy minister in the government of the "Law and
Justice" (PIS).
Should Poland fear the "Russian
oligarchs", backed, as they think, by the Kremlin? Of course, one cannot
discount the political component in the economic expansion of Russia to
the West, but the horror movie in the spirit of Cold War - "Yesterday
tanks, today oligarchs" - is ungrounded, and the situation is grossly
exaggerated.
Due to the crisis in Europe, the
situation for Russian investments is favorable. Russian acquisitions in
Eastern Europe over the past three years have been close to $3 billion,
which is more than in the previous 17 years. But this is not the only
place Russia is investing in as it ranks eighth in the ranking of global
investors. This indicates a stable financial situation in the country.
As for investment in Poland, they are minimal. Last year, $63 million
was invested, compared to $1.96 billion revenue from German business, Reuters reported.
Polish direct investment in Russia in
2011 was greater that the Russian one and totaled $450 million. At the
Warsaw Stock Exchange shares of several Ukrainian companies are traded,
and none of Russian companies. Among the largest foreign companies
operating in Poland, only five represented Russia, while Germany was
represented by 389 companies, France - 124, and Austria - 52. Naimsky
objected to this statistics by saying that he did not want Warsaw to
look like Karlovy Vary whose Russian population is greater than the
Czech one.
Mr. Naimsky may be unaware of the fact
that the Russians do not buy property in places where they are treated
with hostility. Poland is not on the list of their preferences.
Russians, according to the Chamber of Commerce Russia-Greece, prefer to
buy property in Italy (35 percent), Bulgaria (15 percent), the U.S. (12
percent), Czech Republic (9 percent), Spain (8 percent), and Turkey (3
percent).
The Polish government is conducting a
tacit policy of blocking Russian investments, which can be costly for
the country as it has nowhere to look for other sources of capital. The
Polish economy is declining and can no longer count on the interest of
investors in the Euro zone. It will not benefit from the struggle with
its most important trading partner. In addition, there is a fair
question of whether it is worth considering Poland a democracy with free
and open economy.
Lyuba Lulko