Elections will be held on time. Or so it seems
Various
government spokesmen are at pains to point out that elections will be
held sixty days after the parliament completes its term. That takes the
general elections to next year in the month of May.
Although
mainstream political parties are gearing up for the upcoming elections,
none seems to be ready for immediate polls. The largest opposition
party, the PML-N, time and again keeps on demanding that “the corrupt
and incompetent” government should resign and hold general elections.
But
ground realities are different. The PML-N has a lot of loose ends to
tie up before it goes into elections. Some of the mega projects it had
started with elections in mind have run into serious trouble.
The
so-called Rapid Transport System – a pet project of Shahbaz Sharif – by
all accounts has run into serious administrative, design and planning
problems. The cost has overshot by billions of rupees. And it is
unlikely the system will be operative even by the end of the year.
Perhaps
overawed by Imran Khan’s appeal to the youth, the PML-N is assiduously
trying to court this potentially huge vote bank. The party, after
sticking to its stated principal of keeping turncoats out, has now
opened its doors wide open for them.
As for the PTI, Imran Khan
has a lot of persons and non-persons joining him, but has very few
earmarked candidates. Everything has been put on hold till the elusive
party elections take place.
In the meanwhile, there is confusion
worst confounded in the incipient party. There are a number of
candidates in virtually every constituency who claim to be the official
nominee of the party.
It is obvious that unless the Khan is
solely relying on his ‘tsunami’ to sweep the next elections, he and his
core team have a lot of homework to do in the coming weeks. Naturally,
under the circumstances, the PTI is in no mood to support a call for
early elections.
As for the PPP and its allies, they simply want
to remain in power as long as they can manage. Zardari has reassured the
nation that the elections would be fair and free. With an independent
election commission in place and a person of unblemished record heading
it, no one should doubt that.
By virtue of his maiden speech at
Mandi Bahauddin, Zardari has formally kicked off his party’s election
campaign in the Punjab. After the recent Supreme Court verdict in the
Asghar Khan case, in which the apex court has empathically stated that
the office of the president cannot be used for partisan politicking,
there was a perception that he will be more cautious in exercising his
dual role.
There is a pending petition in the Lahore High Court
challenging the president holding dual offices – the presidency as well
as party co-chairmanship. The PML-N has demanded that he should resign,
as his holding a public meeting in the garb of ‘Eid Milan Party’ was a
violation of his constitutional role.
But Zardari is adamant. He
simply cannot leave the office of the presidency, his power base. Nor
can he entrust the party to someone else on the eve of elections.
Bilawal is still too young and inexperienced while Gilani, who could
have played a role in the upcoming elections, has been virtually
abandoned by his mentor as well as his party.
The party is so
rudderless in Punjab that it had to appoint a turncoat non-jiyala as the
provincial president. Hence it is no surprise that Zardari has
announced his intention to relocate to Lahore not in the Governor House
but in his newly built accommodation. In no position to become Sonia
Gandhi of his party, perhaps he has calculated that he can weather the
courts till the general elections.
There are many who still doubt
that elections will be held at all. Citing the precarious economic
conditions that are likely to get worse in the coming months and
increasing lawlessness in Balochistan and Karachi as reasons, they
contend that the democratic system is simply not functioning. It will be
wrapped up even before elections are announced.
In the past,
military strongmen have sacked civilian governments for much less. So
what is so different now that the militaryshould not come marching in,
again dismantling the whole democratic edifice in the process? Fiercely
independent courts and the media, a reality of present day Pakistan,
will also be silenced in the process.
Doubts have been created by
the COAS General Kayani’s recent statement betraying impatience with
the higher judiciary as well as the media. In most civilian democracies,
military generals have no business pontificating how the national
interest should be determined and democratic institutions should
function.
But in Pakistan it is the norm rather than the exception. General Jahangir Karamat was sacked by Sharif for saying much less.
The
superior judiciary, in the meanwhile, in the garb of interpreting the
constitution has assumed the role of oversight claiming to have cross
cutting jurisdiction. The stated agenda of a full court meeting of the
apex court, headed by the CJP, was to review the administrative matters.
But
in reality, it was a media event to demonstrate the unity of the court
and to respond to the army chief’s recent statement that no individual
or institution had the right to define the national interest. It is
obvious that the war of words between two premier institutions of the
country is contributing to an air of uncertainty.
General Kayani
is credited with nurturing democracy by following the ostensible
hands-off policy in civilian matters.But perhaps the old mindset
ingrained in the hierarchy as a result of decades of military rule in
the country cannot die overnight.
The policy of restraint, guided
by enlightened self-interest of the military and practiced by Kayani,
will hopefully prevail. He, perhaps, is aware that any intervention to
destroy or tinker with the system will land the country into a bigger
quagmire.
The politicians, although squabbling with each other,
with the exception of the usual suspects, will not support such a move.
Nor will the media or the superior judiciary. Elections will be held
nonetheless. So it seems.