President Barack Obama’s re-election has ended the uncertainty and
drift that inevitably envelopes the US ahead of presidential elections.
As happens in most mature and stable polities with strong
institutions, elections are not harbingers of major changes in foreign
policy. Nevertheless, it is in Pakistan’s interest to identify the Obama Administration’s likely policy goals in this part of the world and more particularly, where will Pakistan fit in President Obama’s scheme of things?
Some in the US and in Pakistan as well may claim that there is little
in common between the two countries and, therefore, confrontation is
inevitable. This would, however, be an unfortunate conclusion,
particularly with the huge challenges confronting the region, most of
which incidentally are in and around Pakistan and none amenable to quick
solutions. Failure would not only impact the region, but also leave
scars on President Obama’s legacy.
The most urgent is the issue of the 2014 deadline for the departure
of US combat troops from Afghanistan. A hasty withdrawal without prior
understanding among the parties, within and around Afghanistan, could
recreate the mid-1990s scenario. Leaving a residual force of a few
thousand would make them easy prey to attacks by extremists. The only
option is to engage with the Taliban with seriousness and sincerity that
have not been evidenced so far. The US-Taliban dialogue has, in fact,
been pursued in fits and starts and without the encouragement and
support from the White House that it deserves. Moreover, steps such as branding the Haqqani network as a “terrorist organisation” has not helped, particularly with some Taliban leaders confident that they can “out-wait” the foreign troops.
Pakistan remains a key player in the unfolding events, which makes
understanding and cooperation with the US essential, not only for their
bilateral ties, but vital for future peace in Afghanistan as well. Given
the residue of suspicion and mistrust from the unfortunate slide of the
past two years, it will not be easy, especially as Islamabad gears
itself for general elections that could be deeply contentious, with some
political parties intensifying the anti-US rhetoric.
It is, however, a welcome development that the two have resumed their
dialogue on what would need to be done to ensure that Afghanistan does
not descend into a state of civil war post-2014. But for even a modicum
of understanding to emerge, the US will have to demonstrate greater
imagination and initiative to give substance to their ties than has been
witnessed so far. Pakistan, too, has to recognise that 2014 will leave
none untouched. A ‘helpful’ role in promoting reconciliation in Afghanistan
would ensure huge dividends, not only at home but in relations with the
US, in addition to opening up new opportunities in Central Asia and
Russia.
Iran remains an explosive issue, with Israel and its ‘friends’ in the
US watching hawk-like for evidence of any weakening on President
Obama’s part. Benjamin Netanyahu may have been chagrined by his
‘favourite’s’ defeat, but this will not have weakened his resolve to
pile on pressure on President Obama should he detect any vacillation on
Iran. Nevertheless, the US must explore the option of direct
negotiations with Iran, whose leadership may engage in rhetoric, but
remains committed to realism.
Syria is caught in a vicious civil war that has torn the fabric of
the state. It is tempting to see it as another opportunity to promote
the West’s much-vaunted regime change philosophy. But President Obama
has so far been wary of deeper engagement, preferring once again, to
“lead from behind” and it would be advisable to keep to this track.
In his acceptance speech, President Obama urged the Americans to
“move with confidence beyond this time of war”. Well, he has the unique
opportunity of restoring the US to a position of moral leadership rather
than one based on military strength. He could actually become a
transformational president in foreign policy, provided he can
demonstrate conviction in what he preaches.