After more than ten years of the
presence of international troops, the situation in Afghanistan is still
volatile and the prospective for peace is highly uncertain. Aside from
the volatility of the situation, the presence of international forces
has not only prevented the Taliban from coming back to power but also
significantly contributed to stability in both southern and central
Asia.
This is because the US-led intervention of Afghanistan in 2001 and
subsequent collapse of the Taliban regime contributed to a situation in
which Al-Qaida and other Pakistan-based terrorist groups have lost
their potential to seriously destabilise the region. From a non-military
prospective, the support of the international community has provided
Afghanistan with the opportunity to experience a rapid reconstruction
process in rebuilding permanent state institutions, improving the
overall human rights situation, enjoying economic growth, developing
civil society, and many more achievements. In fact, the tremendous
achievements of Afghanistan in the last decade were unimaginable in the
absence of international forces in that country.
However, since the international
community has accelerated the transition process to transfer its
security responsibilities to the Afghan security forces, the
achievements of the last ten years face significant threats, due to
serious political and security challenges. While many observers consider
the Taliban-led insurgency as the main threat in the post-2014 era,
there are many other equally important challenges – the dominance of
warlords, widespread corruption, inter-ethnic tensions, lack of good
governance and drug trafficking – that significantly threaten the
achievements of the past decade. Of these challenges, increasing
inter-ethnic tensions is an issue of central importance as it
considerably undermines the whole process of the peace-building efforts
of the last ten years. This is particularly so given that Afghanistan
has long been suffering from the harmful consequences of tensions and
conflicts between its main ethnic groups: Pashtuns, Tajiks, Hazaras, and
Uzbeks.
To effectively deal with the challenge
of instability in Afghanistan, it is important to seek a practical
guarantee for all major ethnic groups to have a share of power in the
political administration of the country. The practical guarantee would
build the consensus necessary for achieving lasting peace by providing
for all major ethnic groups to equally participate in the political,
social, economic and legal processes. This goal would be achievable
within a democratic power-sharing political system in which any
decision-making efforts occur by consensus between all ethnic groups. In
such a political system, all major ethnic groups in the country would
be included (not excluded) in government in a way in which they would
have the potential to influence both national and local policy-making
and decision-making processes.
Despite the fact that the 2001 Bonn
Agreement of the post-Taliban regime was a symbolic step towards a
democratic power-sharing political system between major opposing groups,
the dominance of the post-Bonn political administration by a particular
group entirely failed the process. The post-Taliban political system in
Afghanistan was overwhelmingly dominated by a group of Tajiks from
Panjshir valley. Ironically, while the dominance of Panjshiri Tajiks
over the political system ended by early 2006 under continuous pressure
from the international community, the same scenario repeated once again
and today the government of President Karzai is increasingly dominated
by a group of Pashtuns. As such, the post-2001 political system of
Afghanistan has been dominated by one or another ethnic group, fuelling
the ethnic divide, and provoking inter-ethnic tensions and ethnic-based
discrimination.
Critically examining the participation
of major ethnic groups in national political processes in the post-2001
Afghanistan, it is extremely hard to draw a picture of a genuine
democratic power-sharing political system. This is because since the
UN-sponsored Bonn Conference of 2001 in which all conflicting parties
(except the Taliban) participated in peace talks, no firm step has been
taken to provide the ground for genuine representation of all major
ethnic groups in national political and policy making processes. For
example, at the Bonn Conference the people of Afghanistan were
represented by a number of warlords who were accused of massive human
rights violations throughout the civil conflicts of the 1980s and 1990s.
As such, Afghanistan has not experienced a democratic power-sharing
political system in the past decade; instead, the political system has
been dominated by one or another powerful ethnic group at the price of
undermining the presence of other ethnicities in state institutions.
To build the consensus necessary for
peace, it is important for the international community to pave the way
for the establishment of a democratic power-sharing political system in
Afghanistan. However, the establishment of a democratic power-sharing
political system is not possible in the absence of a strong core of
moderate political elites and effective civil society who seek pragmatic
coexistence in the multi-ethnic society of Afghanistan. This means that
no peace is achievable in Afghanistan if the political system of the
country is dominated by a number of extremist politicians who believe in
ethnic supremacy and ethnic-based discrimination.
The support of the international
community in establishing a democratic power-sharing political system is
an issue of central importance at this time, as the strong presence of
the international community in the pre-2014 era would significantly
facilitate such a process. The international community is currently able
to use its leverage (political support, financial aid and military
supplies) as a means of forcing the government of Afghanistan to
genuinely support the idea of establishing a power-sharing political
system. A democratic power-sharing political system would be a practical
guarantee for the international community to ensure that the political,
economic, cultural and legal achievements will be maintained in the
post-2014 era. To achieve this, it is important for the international
community to:
- Work closely with a strong core of moderate political elites from
the Afghan government who seek common values and pragmatic coexistence
with other ethnic groups. Taking such a decision by the international
community would not be an easy task, as President Karzai and probably
many powerful members of his cabinet would oppose it. Such a system
would automatically undermine the dominance of Karzai and his allies
over the political administration of the country in the post-2014
period.
- Seek potential political elites and public figures from the Afghan
Parliament, political opposition groups, civil society, academic circles
and student organisations to work with moderate politicians from the
Afghan government in paving the way for the establishment of a
power-sharing political system. It is extremely important for the
international community to select those figures from the political
elites who genuinely believe in democracy, human rights, social justice
and coexistence between ethnic groups.
- Take the necessary measures to amend the Afghan Constitution to
legally guarantee the establishment of a democratic power-sharing
political system in which there would be a share of power for all major
ethnic groups in state institutions. To better guarantee a genuine share
of power for each major ethnic group, it is important to amend the
Constitution in a way in which no member of a single ethnic group would
be able to simultaneously serve as head of more than one branch of the
state (the government, the parliament, and the judiciary). Such a
political system will ensure that in one time there would be three
members from three different ethnic groups serving as head of the
government, the speaker of the parliament, and the chief justice of the
country.
- Guarantee that there is a genuine share of representation for each
single ethnic group in all state institutions, especially in the
government. Such a practical guarantee would decrease the chance of any
single ethnic group dominating all major posts in state institutions.
However, such a guarantee will not be possible unless there is a
reliable consensus on the percentage of the population of each ethnic
group in Afghanistan. A reliable statistical consensus on the population
of the country is very important in establishing a power-sharing
political system because all major ethnic groups are eager to claim the
number of their population is much larger than what exactly they
constitute.
- Use its political and economic leverage to force the Afghan
government to take the necessary measures to decentralise power, with
the intention of providing all ethnic groups with the opportunity to
directly elect local authorities and decide about the priorities of
socio-economic development in their areas. The decentralisation of power
in Afghanistan is an integral element of the establishment of a
democratic power-sharing political system as it provides local
populations with the opportunity to have a share of power in the
decision making processes of their areas.
A power-sharing political system would
significantly undermine the legacy of the Taliban among Pashtuns:
coexistence between all ethnic groups combined with the absence of the
international troops in the post-2014 era will remove all justification
to continue their violence. This is crucial because there is an
increasing number of Pashtuns who support the Taliban in the mistaken
assumption that the Taliban will serve them better than the current
corrupt government of Afghanistan. Therefore, as a power-sharing
political system would decrease inter-ethnic tensions and contribute to a
more effective governance system, Pashtuns would see no reason for
supporting the Taliban or any other armed groups.
Lastly, a power-sharing political system
would automatically reduce the increasing influence of warlords among
Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks, since with the lack of serious security
threats from the Taliban there would be no support-base for these
influential warlords among these ethnic groups. The ineffectiveness of
the current government in delivering good governance and the growing
dominance of state institutions by a group of Pashtuns associated with
President Karzai have provided influential warlords with an opportunity
to build support among their ethnic groups under the banner of
protecting them against the dominance of Pashtuns. A power-sharing
political system would prevent warlords who are accused of massive and
indiscriminate violations of human rights over the last three decades
from portraying themselves as the protectors of the people.